A 1-in-83 chance of an impact represented a 1.2% chance of an impact. That meant there was a 98.8% that 2024 YR4 would miss Earth. The new figure of 1-in-43 represents a 2.3% chance of a strike. "That means we are still at 97.7% chance of a miss from this asteroid," Rankin told Space.com.

"An asteroid this size impacts Earth on average every few thousand years and could cause severe damage to a local region," the European Space Agency said.