We're taking a snapshot of the Aussie interest rate swap curve and identify a c.50bp pa gap between the 10yr rate and our projected profile for 3mth bills. Click to read.

Currently the 10yr swap rate is some 15bp below the 10yr government yield, as has become thematic in many developed markets. However, we view this as a less compelling thing for Australia.

We identify a neutral Reserve Bank of Australia rate at around 3.6%. The theory here is centered on a tolerance for CPI inflation up to 3%, with a moderate real rate added to that. It is also in line ...

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