NEW ORLEANS — Colorado State University is predicting an above-average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season, with 17 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. That’s a bit more than the 30-year average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

Forecasters worry about warm water in the Atlantic Ocean where hurricanes form and the predicted absence of an El Niño.

El Niño, a climate phenomenon marked by warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, is known to trigger extreme weather events worldwide, from droughts and floods to disruptions in agriculture and ecosystems.

In recent decades, these climate patterns have been persisting longer and recurring more often. A striking example is the 2020-2023 La Niña, a rare “triple-dip” event that lasted for three years. Rather than returning to neutral conditions, these anomalies are prolonging devastation and making recovery increasingly difficult.

El Niños develop every few years and can cause heavy rains, droughts and other hazards. Most El Niños last for a year, but since 1950, five have continued for two or more years. Scientists want to understand how the frequency of these longer-lasting events is changing over time.